Chemical companies are optimistic about the aromatics market

The chemical market has improved along with the economic recovery. It is understood that in the first quarter of 2010, the aromatics market had a “flavor”: the investment in the aromatic hydrocarbon base in Liaoyang City was 6 billion yuan, among which 3 companies participated in the project. The home is from among the world's top 500; Urumqi Petrochemical's large aromatics project will be completed by the end of this month. It can be seen that the aromatics market improved in the economic recovery in 2010.

Aromatic hydrocarbons are one of the main operations of China's petrochemical industry. Aromatic hydrocarbons and ethylene are also the core production facilities of petrochemicals, and are the two leading product chains of downstream chemical fiber and chemical industry of oil refining. The main products of aromatics are benzene, p-xylene, and o-xylene, and paraxylene is the main raw material for the production of purified terephthalic acid, which is the main raw material for the production of chemical fiber. Benzene and o-xylene are Important organic chemical raw materials.

09 status of aromatics market

Pure benzene: In 2009, the price of pure benzene showed a general upward trend at the bottom. Although there was slight fluctuations with the external disk and crude oil in the middle, there was no major correction space. In particular, since the fourth quarter, pure benzene has steadily risen under the twin favorable conditions of both domestic and foreign markets, ending the 2009 market with the highest price of 7,800 yuan/ton in the year.

In the first half of 2009, due to serious internal and external disk upside down, while China’s loose monetary policy has facilitated the importer’s capital turnover, China’s imports of pure benzene have soared. In the second half of the year, China’s new benzene production capacity has been gradually driven. Pure benzene exports became the heart pattern in 2009, reversing the situation of large quantities of imported pure benzene in previous years.

In 2009, the actual output of pure benzene was about 4.638 million tons/year, the import was 622,000 tons/year, and the actual consumption in the year reached 4.981 million tons/year.

prediction

According to preliminary estimates, the new production capacity in 2010 will be 1.1 million tons/year, and the total production capacity will reach 9.08 million tons/year. Based on the operating rate of 75%, the output will reach 6.81 million tons/year. With the further recovery of pure benzene downstream styrene, phenol, caprolactam, hexamethylenediamine, aniline, maleic anhydride, chlorobenzene, nitrobenzene, alkylbenzene and other industries, it is expected that China's pure benzene demand will reach 700-730 in 2010. 10,000 tons/year, the gap between supply and demand is still large.

Toluene: In 2009, the average operating rate of toluene equipment in China gradually increased. From the average operating rate of 60% in the first quarter to 65% in the second quarter, it rose to more than 75% in the third and fourth quarters. The main reason for this is that, after undergoing a historic slump in the fourth quarter of 2008, the toluene market entered a recovery stage in 2009. Some toluene installations that are parked or deloaded due to efficiency problems have been restarted or have increased their operating rates. In addition, the majority of toluene equipment was concentrating on maintenance in the first half of the year, resulting in a significantly higher plant operating rate in the second half of 2009 than in the first half of 2009.

In 2009, the actual output of toluene was about 4.238 million tons/year, and the imports were 791,000 tons/year. The actual consumption in the year reached 5.013 million tons/year.

prediction

According to preliminary estimates, the new production capacity in 2010 will be 300,000 tons/year, and the total production capacity will reach 5 million tons/year. Based on the operating rate of 88%, the output will reach 4.38 million tons/year. With the further recovery of the global economy, it is expected that China's toluene demand will reach 510-5.2 million tons/year in 2010, and the supply and demand gap will remain.

Paraxylene: China's paraxylene production is mainly concentrated in the Sinopec Group's affiliated companies, and the group's product sales are all unified pricing sales, product ex-factory prices are less affected by the region, so the Chinese paraxylene North China and The price difference in East China is relatively small. In 2009, the overall price basically fluctuated between 7300-9000 yuan/ton. In northern China, due to strong downstream demand and tight supply, the tonnage price in June and July 2009 was about 500 yuan higher than that in East China.

In 2009, the production capacity of paraxylene in China was approximately 7.225 million tons/year, and the output was approximately 5.658 million tons/year, representing a year-on-year increase of 63.1% in 2008.

The apparent consumption of China's para-xylene in 2009 was about 9.03 million tons/year, an increase of 40.5% year-on-year in 2008. The driving force of growth was mainly from the downstream industry chain PTA and the growth of the polyester industry, although China's clothing for the first half of 2009 Exports from the downstream industries such as textiles and textiles were hindered, but they were affected by policies such as domestic demand growth and China's policy of providing export tax rebates for textile products. In the second half of the year, the downstream industry situation improved, increasing the demand for paraxylene and PTA.

prediction

For the textile and industrial chain industry, it is expected that 2010 will be a year of competition between capacity recovery and demand recovery. In terms of supply, the production capacity of paraxylene, PTA, and polyester has been expanding in recent years: In 2009, global and Chinese paraxylene production capacity increased significantly, and China’s import dependence declined. In 2010, the industry’s profits will be further challenged; PTA China only The capacity is expected to meet China's demand in 2010; while China's polyester production capacity has far exceeded demand, and the operating rate is only about 50%. On the demand side, both exports and domestic demand have shown optimism: The year-on-year decline in China's textile and apparel exports has narrowed, showing a recovery from the previous quarter; the textile and apparel PMI index has initially stabilized, and export orders have shown signs of recovery. However, domestic demand was also better than expected. The total retail sales of apparel goods were significantly higher than the total retail sales of consumer goods in the entire society. Therefore, with the increase in demand, it is expected that China's production capacity will be gradually digested, and 2010 will be a year in which PTA prices and the textile industry are slowly recovering.

In summary, in 2010, the demand for aromatics market was higher than in previous years, and the improvement of the market is an inevitable trend. However, the gap between supply and demand is still very large.

Chemical companies are optimistic about the aromatics market

Chief Executive Officer of PTT Aromatics and Refinery (PTTAR) said that due to the estimated need to gradually improve, aromatics producers are optimistic about the market conditions in 2010, the largest aromatics producer in Thailand (and the 7th largest aromatics producer in Asia) The president and chief executive officer said: “In the past two months, the market is relatively good. It seems that the market will not be worse than in 2009. If the global economy recovers in the second half of this year, we will see that demand will gradually improve.”

Ukrainian Petrochemical one million tons of aromatics project completed by the end of June

The Urumqi Petrochemical large aromatics project will be completed on June 30, 2010. On September 30, it is expected that the project will be commissioned. CNPC stated that Wufang Petrochemical’s large aromatics project includes 1 million tons/year of continuous reforming, 1 million tons/year of hydrocracking and 1 million tons/year of PX plant, and will compete with Dushanzi Petrochemical’s 1 million tons of ethylene project to build Xinjiang Petroleum. A solid foundation for the development of the petrochemical industry.

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