·The car market has been slowing down for four consecutive months.

In the past month, the depressed car market has not seen any improvement. A few days ago, the China Automobile Association released data, the car sales in August was 1,664,500 units, down 3% year-on-year. This is the fourth consecutive month of production and sales of China's auto sales, which was lower than that of the same period of last year. The sales volume in the first eight months also declined slightly. This year's negative growth has already appeared.

The industry continued to slump, and the Secretary-General of the China Automobile Association, Dong Yang, threw out the “save the number to save the city” stimulus plan, and also made the long-lost “save the city” sound again. However, for a market with an annual sales volume of 23 million vehicles, is the market going to save? How should I save?

Some industry insiders said that the automobile industry has entered a period of transformation and adjustment, and the downturn may last for a long time. If short-term stimulus is used, there is no benefit to the car market. However, it is necessary to formulate a medium- and long-term development strategy for the automobile industry, strengthen top-level design, clarify strategic goals and tasks, and promote transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry through healthy reform and innovation.

Zero sales growth in the first eight months

“The production and sales of automobiles have been lower than the same period of the previous year for four consecutive months, and the cumulative production and sales volume in the first eight months is also lower than that of the same period of the previous year. Although the cumulative growth rate is zero, it is actually more than 100 vehicles compared with the same period of last year. Chen Shihua, director of the Industry Information Department of the China Automobile Association, said.

Data show that in August, China's automobile production and sales were 1,569,700 units and 1,664,500 units respectively, and the production and sales volume decreased by 8.4% and 3% respectively compared with the same period of the previous year. Among them, passenger car production and sales also appeared for three consecutive months lower than the previous year's level. In August, production and sales were 1,341,600 and 1,148,500 respectively, with year-on-year production and sales falling by 9.4% and 3.4% respectively; while commercial vehicle production and sales were respectively 228,100. With 246,000 vehicles, production and sales fell by 2.3% and 0.6% respectively, and the decline began to shrink.

On this basis, in the first eight months, the production and sales of automobiles were 151.824 million and 1.517 million respectively, and the production and sales were slightly lower than the same period of the previous year. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars completed 12.97 million and 12.7921 million respectively, an increase of 2.4% and 2.6% respectively over the same period of the previous year, and the growth rate dropped by 9.2 and 8.1 percentage points respectively; while the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 2,121,700 and 2,235,100 respectively. , down 13.5% and 12.6% respectively over the same period of the previous year.

At the same time, automobile imports and exports fell sharply. In August, auto companies exported 52,200 units, down 23.4% year-on-year. In July, a total of 101,000 vehicles were imported, a decrease of 24.9% over the same period of the previous year.

With the downturn in the market, the China Automobile Association has revised its pre-judgment for this year's market, from a positive growth of 7% at the beginning of the year to an estimated 3% growth in the middle of the year, and may now experience negative growth. "Macro economy, stock market, and consumption power are all related to the automobile industry. If these conditions have not changed, it is very likely that there will be negative growth." Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, said.

Qi Guochun, deputy director of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, also said that as China's economy enters the "new normal" of development, the automobile industry has also entered a period of transformation and adjustment. Since the beginning of this year, the profit situation of the entire automobile industry has been worse than before, and this situation may be further aggravated for a long time.

The call for bailout is growing louder

Such a depressed market has made the long-lost "save the city" sound again.
“Because of the slowdown in economic growth, the flow of funds to the stock market and other reasons, the auto market has been declining month by month. The accumulated sales in the previous July have been the same as last year. The market has talked about what the government may or should use to boost the auto market.” Secretary of the China Automobile Association Chang Dong Yang said.

This also means that under the impact of the sluggish market, the “bailout” has begun to enter the agenda of the discussion. It is understood that in order to stimulate market consumption, the relevant associations have proposed to the government departments to save the city, including halving 10% of the car purchase tax, relaxing the number of new cars entering the market, and speeding up the elimination of old cars.

In 2009, affected by the global financial crisis, sales in the domestic auto market experienced a sharp decline, and the growth rate was turned negative. As part of a package of stimulus spending plans, the government introduced the "Automotive Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan", which has adopted the measures of halving the purchase tax of 1.6L displacement models and taking the car to the countryside, making China's auto market the number one in the world. Big market.

"Now the stimulus policy is being discussed, and the relevant departments are also listening to the opinions of the enterprises, but I think that we should not stimulate consumption on a large scale." Liu Weidong, member of the Standing Committee and Deputy General Manager of Dongfeng Motor Corporation, said that the introduction of policies to save the market is actually not particularly good. The effect, simply stimulating consumption, does not make any sense. It is necessary to strengthen the elimination of yellow-label vehicles and subsidize some energy-saving new energy vehicles.

Analysts pointed out that as early as the end of August, at the special meeting of the State Council "to study the impact of new changes in the international economic and financial situation on China's economy and countermeasures", it was proposed to support the physical economy to improve quality and efficiency, promote machinery, textile, light Accelerated depreciation in the fields of industry and automobiles, and increased support for investment in technological transformation of traditional industries.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said that the stimulus of the automobile market is an important measure to cope with market changes, and the stimulus policy should not be too long, similar to limited time promotion. Such a short period of small pull can relieve stress and does not bring too much sequelae.

How should the market be saved?

Today, “salvation” is like a stone falling into the lake, causing great concern in the industry. So how should the market save?

“China has dozens or even hundreds of car brands, which is similar to the state of the American automobile industry in the early 20th century. If this situation persists, then the rise and expansion of Chinese car brands is almost unimaginable. Too many Chinese car brands The existence of these excellent Chinese brands lacks more market space.” Automotive analyst Zhang Zhiyong believes that the crisis is a stage that must be experienced for the Chinese auto industry and the best period for the rise of Chinese auto brands. Because only this period, many car brands are more likely to be reorganized. “The crisis in China’s auto market today provides the best soil for Chinese auto brands.”

"There are many ways to boost the automobile market. In principle, I do not agree to adopt nationwide temporary measures, such as phased tax cuts, which will cause market volatility. Today's happiness will be replaced by the pain of tomorrow. I am in favor of speeding up the elimination of old cars. Because this law has the greater advantage of significantly reducing pollutant emissions. I am more in favor of deepening the reform method, such as allowing and encouraging car manufacturers to recycle their own old vehicles, because this law can also be used in addition to promotions. Promote remanufacturing and promote manufacturers to improve the recyclability and availability of product design." Dong Yang also said.

"I can't get out of the rescue measures? I think the short-term measures are not desirable for a strong-minded approach. We must give long-term policies." Director Zhao Hang of China Automotive Technology and Research Center believes that.

In this regard, Lu Jian, deputy director of the Industry Coordination Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the Tianjin Automobile Forum that from the perspective of future development, China's auto industry is not required to formulate a medium- and long-term development plan for 2016-2030. Competitiveness, optimization of industrial management system, clear strategic direction in internationalization strategy, new energy vehicle strategy, etc., enhance the core competitiveness of China's automobile industry, and promote the coordinated and sustainable development of the automobile industry and economic society.

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