Does China's Government Subsidy Continue to Pay for Oil Prices?

The most direct victim of high oil price clouds is that China’s state-owned oil companies have more refining and losses.
In addition to importing value-added tax before the end of the levy on refined oil products, the relevant departments also decided to start monthly subsidies for PetroChina and Sinopec. Is the analysis of oil prices by foreign analysts expected to increase the government’s fiscal expenditure in this area?
On May 6, Goldman Sachs Group analyst Arjun Murti issued a report saying that in the next two years, crude oil prices in the international market will continue to climb, reaching 150 to 200 US dollars per barrel. Coincidentally, the international crude oil futures price of the New York Stock Exchange broke 120 US dollars per barrel during the day.
The analysts at Goldman Sachs released a rhetoric on the occasion of the low international oil price in 2005, saying that the price of oil will rise to US$100/barrel. An analyst at Guotai Junan stated that the Goldman Sachs Group itself has a strong and complex background. Each time it puts out a speech, it may be plagued with various interests. Another analyst agrees with Goldman Sachs’ latest view, saying that this bold prediction is not necessarily alarmist given the current uncertain global economic situation and the sharp depreciation of the US dollar.
Wang Zhen, Dean of the School of Business Administration of China University of Petroleum, summarized the current dynamics of oil prices as the following: Some people are eager to boost oil prices and speculative profits by significantly increasing the demand for petroleum products from China and India. Currently, China does not possess a special advantage in crude oil futures trading. Therefore, positive news often has little impact on the drop in oil prices. Negative news is more likely to stimulate speculation by oil traders.
China is unable to effectively reverse the benchmark prices of several kinds of oil in the international market, so at present, it can only reduce the demand for overseas crude oil and control the total domestic refined oil consumption to some extent.
The rise in oil prices has increased the losses of Chinese oil refining companies. Last year, the global average oil price was approximately US$72.65/barrel, Sinopec’s refining business suffered a loss of 13.6 billion yuan; in the first quarter of this year, the average price of crude oil reached US$98/barrel, and China Petrochemical’s operating income was RMB–10.45 billion during the same period. 80% of the total loss last year. An analyst who did not want to be identified believes that according to the calculation of the processing volume of 160 million tons of crude oil by Sinopec every year, for every US$10 increase in its refining cost, Sinopec will lose 80 billion yuan.
Sinopec's refined oil production in 2007 was 93.09 million tons, accounting for 50% of the domestic refined oil apparent consumption. Under the premise of controlling inflation, the government has also taken corresponding measures (such as financial subsidies) to make up for Sinopec's refining losses. However, it is obvious that the form of the annual appropriation will be difficult to ensure long-term enthusiasm for the company's refined oil production. Therefore, since April of this year, the government has made dynamic subsidies by reducing the import tax on crude oil. Guojin Securities predicts that if the country calculates a 75% VAT rebate on crude oil imports, Sinopec imports 120 million tons of crude oil and will receive a tax rebate of 75 billion yuan.
Sinopec’s largest oil production company, Zhenhai Refining and Chemicals, once disclosed on an informal occasion that its refining capacity will increase from 20 million tons per year to 23 million tons in September next year, reflecting the domestic finished product from one side. The rising demand for oil.
Due to the appreciation of the renminbi, Sinopec's refining and profit-loss balance point has increased from the original 68 US dollars/barrel to 76 US dollars/barrel. According to the calculation of China Gold Securities, the Renminbi will increase by 1%, and the company’s refining gross profit will also increase by approximately 1 %. However, if oil prices continue to rush out of new highs, long-term subsidies may not continue, because huge financial subsidies will also increase government pressure, and the country must continue to increase the confidence of oil companies by properly adjusting refined oil prices. In the future, it will be possible to steadily control domestic refined oil consumption through a combination of price adjustment and subsidy policies.
Analysts believe that from the current crude oil market supply and demand fundamentals can be predicted, oil prices should be around 80 US dollars / barrel is more reasonable. The current oil price of US$120/bbl contains a financial premium of US$40/bbl. The reason is that crude oil as a commodity, under the deterioration of external subprime environment, funds influx into the market in order to avoid a large number of financial risks.

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