â—† Short-term downward pressure on synthetic rubber prices. It is expected that the decline rate can reach 15-20% within 1-2 months.

From the perspective of historical comparison, natural rubber and synthetic rubber have a price difference of around RMB3,000-4,000/ton, and from the last month, due to the lagging adjustment of the price of synthetic rubber, it has caused its current price to be high, thus making The glue-synthetic glue shows rare inversion phenomenon. In the short-term supply and demand situation, the domestic supply of synthetic rubber will increase significantly in the period from October to November, mainly due to the fact that Gaoqiao Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical's shutdown inspection and maintenance are nearing completion, and domestic Yanshan, Daqing and Baling Petrochemicals have improved their operating rates after the overhaul. In addition, the most critical point is that due to the fact that more than 30% decline in butadiene within a month has caused the spread of synthetic collagen materials to reach the highest level near the historical level, so under the current weak demand, the price of synthetic rubber fell sharply. Just a matter of time.

In terms of magnitude, we expect the price of synthetic rubber will be adjusted by at least 15-20% in October-November, and the unit price will probably fall by 5,000 yuan per ton. Of course, if the prices of natural rubber and butadiene continue to weaken, the future decline in synthetic rubber may be even greater.

◆ Under the short-term economic downside risks, natural rubber is under pressure, and the long-term situation of natural rubber oversupply will continue. We believe that the long-term decision for natural rubber prices is mainly a supply-demand relationship. Under the situation of oversupply in the coming years, the price of rubber will be suppressed. Supply was due to the large number of replanting of rubber in Asia in 2005-2008, and most of the replanting took place over the past few years. With the increasing area of ​​cuts and the increase in yields, it is expected that the natural The output of rubber will increase substantially and will not begin to decline until 2015.

In the short term, we believe that the economic downside risks will increase the price pressure for natural rubber. Historical experience shows that natural rubber prices tend to fluctuate drastically during economic turmoil. Over the past 10 years, crude oil prices have generally closed at the same level, and natural rubber prices have risen by 30%. Once weakened, the relative space is relatively large. On the other hand, the current upside down of natural rubber and synthetic rubber, and the premium of Shanghai natural rubber relative to Tokyo Tianjiao reflect to some extent the adjustment pressure of domestic natural rubber prices in the coming period of time. Therefore, we believe that there is a large probability of Natural rubber is likely to follow the weakness of synthetic rubber prices in the next 1-2 months.

â—† Looking at the price of rubber, the business climate of tires and rubber products companies is approaching, and Baotong Belt Industry Co., Ltd. and Aeolus Co., Ltd.

Baotong belt industry has a clear core competitive advantage in the rubber conveyor belt field. Its high-end and differentiated products guarantee its stability and higher than its peers' profitability. The company's raised investment project laminated flame retardant belts will be put into operation in late October this year, once the company enters into large scale. Coal supply system, the market will quickly open, super high-strength steel cord cord production in the second half of next year, will bring a substantial increase in performance, the recent promotion of equity incentives to increase employee enthusiasm, the company's raw material inventory is low, can basically avoid Loss of inventory caused by falling prices, is expected to be 0.5 and 1.26 yuan this year and next year, giving 20 times PE 12 years, corresponding to a target price of 25 yuan.

Rubber (including natural rubber and synthetic rubber) accounts for about 50% of the cost of tire production, so the performance sensitivity caused by falling prices is high. In the tire industry, Aeolus shares have the most flexibility. The current performance is 13 times and 11 times that of PE in 11-12 years, PB is only 2.2 times, and the margin of safety is large.