It has doubled in growth for four straight years before 2009, and it has slowed to 30% by 2010. The Chinese wind power industry, which was once the “big bang”, has come to a point of change from quantitative to qualitative change. Standing at a new starting point, as a latecomer, China's wind power industry has broken through the difficulties of development, achieved success from behind, and has become an important issue in the sustainable development of wind power in China.

At the first domestic large-scale wind power exhibition held this year, the 2011 Tianjin International Wind Power Industry Matchmaking Conference, industry experts and well-known wind power companies at home and abroad have “struggles” for the development of wind power in China. In the next five years, China's wind power industry will enter a period of smooth growth, price competition will be difficult to sustain in the short term, and wind power equipment manufacturing companies will enter the era of merger and integration.

The development of wind power in China must change from the pursuit of development speed to the pursuit of quality, from the pursuit of installed capacity to focus on wind power, and from large-scale development to large-scale decentralized development.

China's wind power is "large but not strong"

After 2009, with a total wind power capacity of 29 million kilowatts surpassing Germany and becoming the second-largest wind power market in the world, China’s newly installed wind power capacity and total installed capacity surpassed the United States in 2010 to leap to the top in the world.

In 2010, China's new wind power equipment capacity is estimated to be 17.55 million kilowatts, with a total installed capacity of 41.67 million kilowatts.

However, although China has become a major wind power country in the world, it is still not a wind power power.

From the perspective of per capita electricity, developed countries such as the United States, Denmark, and Germany reached 13,682, 6,773 and 7,813 kilowatt hours, respectively, while China’s per capita electricity capacity was only 2,585 kwh. From the perspective of wind power per capita, the United States, Denmark and Germany were 174, respectively. 1313 and 492 kWh, while China's per capita wind power is only 9 kWh; from the perspective of wind power, Denmark, Spain and Germany, which are ranked in the top three, reach 19%, 11% and 6% respectively, but China only has 0.35. %.

In addition, China's per capita electric power installed capacity, per capita wind power installed capacity and wind power installed capacity are also far lower than the developed countries in the world.

As the quality level of China's wind power equipment is still lower than that of Europe and the United States and other developed countries, and there is still a large gap between the grid connection capacity, hoisting capacity, and wind power efficiency and efficiency levels, China has become the world's largest wind power market.

The key indicators for measuring the health of the entire wind power industry chain should be the preferred power generation capacity, instead of using wind power installed capacity and wind turbine manufacturing capacity as indicators.

In fact, the Chinese Academy of Engineering proposed in the "China Renewable Energy Development Strategy Study" major consulting project that China's sustainable development of energy strategy should be green, low-carbon, energy-saving priority, total control. According to this idea, by 2020, the installed capacity of wind power in China is expected to reach 150 to 200 million kilowatts.

During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, China’s wind power industry will maintain a rapid and steady development momentum, and the installed capacity will increase at a rate of 15 million kilowatts per year. It does not rule out the possibility of a significant increase in wind power installed capacity again in 2016.

Quality and technology become the focus of competition In recent years, the rapid development of China's wind power industry, long-term accumulation of product quality problems began to focus on exposure, highlighting: failure of wind turbines, accidents, wind turbine operation and maintenance costs are high, wind farm capacity coefficient is low Wind power and power grids are "unfriendly," and wind power is incongruous with the environment.

From the operation records of domestic wind farms, the failure rate of wind power equipment is higher than 5%, and the failure rate of components is even higher. The gearbox is the first weak link in fan quality, followed by the converter and hydraulic station respectively. .

In addition, low-voltage ride-through technology, known as "friendly" technology for wind power and power grids, has not been able to achieve breakthroughs and has become a major cause of current "unfriendly" wind and electric fields.

In order to maintain a healthy and sustainable development of the wind power industry in China and realize the transition from a wind power country to a wind power powerhouse, we must pay more attention to quality and technology.

"We must do a good job in the management of wind power in the entire lifecycle from both management and technology." On the one hand, we must correctly handle the relationship between quality and cost, and continuously reduce the cost of wind power while ensuring quality. It is good for real-time detection and fault diagnosis of wind turbine operation to promote technological advancement on the basis of fully integrating resources.

In view of the current “disharmony” between wind power and the environment, in the construction of wind farms, it is necessary to consider landscapes, minimize the use of land, and restore vegetation after construction. In addition, birds must be protected, especially in the migration route of migratory birds, planning of wind power is strictly prohibited. Field; also reduce the noise of wind turbines, especially offshore wind farms.

Fan manufacturing accelerates "shuffle"

Considering that the power grid has become the biggest challenge to the current development of the wind power industry, industry experts generally believe that the focus of future wind power competition will shift from resources to the market.

“The “crazy” wind power industry in China has caused the overcapacity problem in the domestic wind power equipment manufacturing industry to become increasingly prominent.” Xie Changjun admitted that in 2010 the country’s newly installed capacity of 20 million kilowatts of wind power, only Huarui, Goldwind, Dongqi, The production capacity of Mingyang and United Power will exceed the above capacity. At the same time, international wind turbine manufacturing giants such as Denmark Vestas, Spain's Gemini, and GE of the United States have established production bases in China. The fierce competition in the wind power market can be imagined.

At present, China has nearly 90 wind power machine manufacturing companies, more than 50 blade companies, and nearly 100 tower crane companies. These companies have already revealed problems with their own design capabilities and low after-sales service levels.

In the future, China's wind power equipment manufacturing industry will enter the era of mergers and integration. “After the Ebb Tide and Merger and Integration, it is expected that China will eventually retain 8 to 10 turbine manufacturers.”

China's wind turbine manufacturers can try to "go out" to find a broader blue ocean.

Industrial chain optimization immediately Although China's wind power equipment manufacturing industry has become one of the dominant industries with international competitiveness, and the technological innovation of enterprises has made significant progress, the supporting system for wind power industry in China is still not perfect, and product technology R&D has not been effectively integrated in the industry chain. As a result, the price war in the entire machine market has become increasingly intense.

Since 2007, the average price of wind power in China has dropped at an average annual rate of 12% from the original 10,000 yuan to 6,000 to 7,000 yuan in 2007-2008. In 2010, it has entered the "3000" era. In January this year, the price further fell below 3,700 yuan.

In order to avoid the continuous escalation of the market price war, a more powerful wind power industry chain will undoubtedly become an important bargaining chip in the wind power market.

A complete wind power industry chain should include: resource survey and analysis, engineering design, wind turbine design, manufacture, installation, commissioning, inspection and certification, operation and management, power grid transformation and construction, market absorption, service and talent management and so on.

The key to perfecting the wind power industry chain is to strengthen the coordination and cooperation between the upstream and downstream, and to strengthen professional production. “The whole machine company should not try to 'big and complete' as much as possible, and more parts and components should be used to encourage the market to achieve full competition.”

Many domestic wind turbine companies have started to implement the industrial chain. For example, Goldwind Technology has already started to acquire blade companies; more than 50% of Mingyang's wind turbine components are produced in a controlled or equity-shared manner, and the blades are produced by wholly-owned subsidiaries. Inverter, pitch/frequency conversion, and complete machine control systems are affiliated with related companies. produce.

Jin Donghu, director of the Tianjin Binhai New Area Economic and Information Committee, said that Tianjin is stepping up efforts to formulate an industrial policy to promote the development of wind power, and strengthening the construction of the wind power industry chain is an important part of this. According to reports, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, Tianjin will encourage wind power companies to establish R&D institutes, focusing on research and development of onshore wind turbines of 2.5 MW and above, offshore wind turbines of 3 MW and above, and critical components of wind turbines, while actively cultivating and introducing domestic External wind power research, testing and certification agencies continue to optimize the industrial environment.