New energy vehicles: market demand is beyond imagination in the next 4 years

On December 19, the State Council officially released the "13th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Strategic Emerging Industries in the Country", with a planning period of 2016-2020. The goal is to achieve production and sales of more than 2 million vehicles in the same year, the cumulative production and sales of more than 5 million vehicles, the overall technical level to keep pace with the international, forming a group of internationally competitive new energy vehicle vehicles and key components enterprises. This is the clarion call of the Chinese government to launch a general attack on the goal of producing and selling 2 million new energy vehicles annually. This horn makes it a very important and epoch-making guiding significance for the development of new energy vehicles in China in the next four years.


The author understands the following:

1. The goal is inspiring, but time is tight

The output value of China's new energy vehicles will reach 10 trillion yuan by 2020, and the goal is encouraging. New low-carbon industries such as new energy vehicles, new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection should become pillar industries. The basic sign is to achieve output value of more than 10 trillion yuan. By 2020, the level of power battery technology will be synchronized with the international level. Leading the world; to achieve mass production and scale demonstration of fuel cell vehicles by 2020; to form a charging infrastructure system to meet the needs of electric vehicles by 2020. 2016 is over, 2017 is coming, and only four years from the end of 2020, the situation is compelling.

2. China's new energy vehicle technology route is pure electric drive

At present, China's new energy vehicles are pure electric vehicles , that is, pure electric drive vehicles. This is the development of plug-in hybrid and fuel cell vehicles based on pure electric drives. The demand for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles is to upgrade their industrialization level; the demand for fuel cell vehicles is to promote the industrialization process. The technical route of China's new energy vehicles is not based on the Japanese-style hybrid model, and its fuel cell vehicle development model is also based on pure electric drives.

3. The financial subsidy is a leading role in the development of new energy vehicles.

By 2020, electric vehicles will strive to have market competitiveness in commercialization. For the development of new energy vehicles, the state and local financial subsidies will be firm, continuous, and retreating by 2020. Financial subsidies have a huge leading role in the development of new energy vehicles in China. Strengthen technological innovation, improve the industrial chain, optimize the supporting environment, and implement and improve the supporting policies. Improving the production access policy for electric vehicles and studying the implementation of the new energy vehicle points management system are also important components of China's important policy for developing new energy vehicles.

4. The main tasks of the next four years

1) Improve the overall quality and performance of electric vehicles. Accelerate the innovation and application of electric vehicle system integration technology, focus on vehicle safety, reliability research and structural lightweight design; improve the technical level, supporting capacity and vehicle performance of key components; accelerate the formulation and application of electric vehicle safety standards.

2) Accelerate the application innovation of electric vehicle intelligent technology. Develop intelligent self-driving cars. To build a joint innovation platform for electric vehicles and a strategic alliance of cross-industry and cross-disciplinary technological innovations to promote collaborative innovation of key technologies for electric vehicles.

3) Building a globally competitive power battery industry chain:

1 Carry out research and development of energy storage application technology for electric vehicle electric power system, implement joint application demonstration of distributed new energy and electric vehicle, and promote the integrated development of electric vehicle and smart grid, new energy, energy storage and intelligent driving.

2 to achieve breakthrough development of battery material technology. Vigorously promote the development of power battery technology, focus on breaking through battery grouping and system integration technology, and advance the development of next-generation power batteries and new system power batteries. Accelerate the innovation of high-performance, high-reliability power battery production, control and testing equipment, and improve the power battery engineering and industrialization capabilities.

3 Cultivate and develop a group of power battery companies and key materials leading enterprises with continuous innovation capabilities. Promote the use of power battery ladders and establish a power battery recycling system linked by upstream and downstream enterprises.

4 New energy vehicle power battery upgrading project. Improve the power battery research and development system, accelerate the construction of the power battery innovation center, and break through the technical bottlenecks such as high safety, long life and high energy density lithium ion batteries. We have built several technological innovation centers in key battery materials and key production equipment, breaking through high-capacity positive and negative materials, high-safety diaphragms and functional electrolyte technologies. Increase production, control and testing equipment innovation, and promote the construction of engineering capacity in the entire industry chain.

5 Research and development of new technologies in the fields of fuel cells , all-solid lithium-ion batteries, metal-air batteries, and lithium-sulfur batteries. The system promotes the development and industrialization of fuel cell vehicles . Strengthen research on fuel cell base materials and process mechanisms to promote the development of high-performance, low-cost fuel cell materials and key components of systems.

6 Accelerate the improvement of the reliability and engineering level of the fuel cell stack system and improve relevant technical standards. Promote the development of on-board hydrogen storage systems and hydrogen preparation, storage and transportation technologies, and promote the construction of hydrogen refueling stations.

4) Accelerate the construction of a standardized and convenient infrastructure system. In accordance with the principle of “appropriate and appropriate advancement”, priority will be given to building public service area charging infrastructure in urban development, and actively promoting the construction of charging piles in residential areas and unit parking spaces. Improve the standard of charging facilities and promote the interconnection and intercommunication of charging infrastructure. Accelerate the development of new charging and replacement technologies and equipment for high power density, high conversion efficiency, high applicability, wireless charging, mobile charging, etc. Strengthen key technologies such as testing and certification, security protection, and two-way interaction with the power grid. Vigorously promote "Internet + charging infrastructure" to improve the level of intelligent charging services. Encourage charging service companies to innovate business models and enhance their ability to sustain development.

5. The demand for new energy vehicles in the next four years is beyond imagination

In 2015, the annual output of new energy vehicles was less than 400,000 units, with an accumulated production and sales of less than 500,000 units. In 2016, production and sales were estimated at 500,000 units, with an accumulated production and sales of less than 1 million units. The State Council officially promulgated the "13th Five-Year Plan for the Development of National Strategic Emerging Industries", with a planning period of 2016-2020. The goal is to achieve production and sales of more than 2 million vehicles in the same year by 2020, with an accumulated production and sales of more than 5 million vehicles. At present, it is already at the end of 2016. In 2017, it will increase the production and sales of 500,000 units in 2016 (accumulated production and sales of less than 1 million units) to 2 million units per year in 2020 (cumulative production and sales exceeding 5 million units). The scale. It is optimistic to estimate that the demand for new energy vehicles in the next four years is beyond imagination. The specific forecast is as follows:

(1) Annual production and sales estimate for the next 4 years

In 2017, the annual production and sales volume of new energy will exceed 600,000 units (the cumulative production and sales will exceed 1.6 million units);

In 22018, the production and sales volume will exceed 700,000 units (the cumulative production and sales will exceed 2.3 million units);

In 32019, the annual production and sales volume will exceed 750,000 units (the cumulative production and sales exceeds 3.05 million units);

42020 production and sales will exceed 2 million vehicles (accumulated production and sales of more than 5.1 million vehicles);

After 52020, China's pure electric vehicles will become a reality in the world.

(2) Basic reasons

In 12016, the government introduced more technical requirements. In the first half of 2017, enterprises should have the energy and time to digest. This year's characteristic is that the bus bus market will increase by more than 30%, which may be higher. The factor is that the fast charge mode and the online charge mode have been recognized by many bus companies. The pure electric bus is China's new energy car market. The stormtroopers can estimate that if the "fast charge mode and online charging mode" can reach a consensus in the bus industry, the national city bus will be electrified, and by 2020, the realization rate will be less than 70%.

2 The pure electric technology of the mini-box pure electric express car and the pure electric city distribution car is quite mature, and the charging method has been diversified, which is the main force of the market in 2017-2018. The rapid (fast) development of China's logistics industry, mini-box pure electric express delivery vehicles and pure electric city distribution vehicles will burst into growth, which is basically reached in the industry.

The 3A0 and B pure electric passenger vehicles will be the basic power of large-scale application of new energy vehicles in China between 2018 and 2020. The Chinese dream is a basic dream for the ordinary Chinese people and the car (sedan) dream. Pure electric passenger cars are developed by Chinese people's own technology. At present, the accumulation process of new energy vehicle technology of several large automobile groups has been completed. The country has issued a general attack on the goal of producing and selling 2 million new energy vehicles per year. The realization of the Chinese pure electric car dream will not be too far.

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